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Clinton vs. Romney (Maybe), Cook Predicts
With all of the caveats that he could dig up, political pundit Charlie Cook predicted at Tuesday’s Summit luncheon that Democrat Hilary Rodham Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney will square off in the 2008 run for the White House.
Cook, editor of The Cook Political Report and a top Washington analyst, was far more certain that Clinton will walk away with the Democratic nomination than he was that Romney would be selected by Republicans.
Handicapping nearly every candidate, Cook said the Democratic race will narrow to Clinton vs. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, but that Obama’s support has flattened since April and has a narrow base of young Democratic voters, while Clinton’s is broader among most older Democrats, even though she is "polarizing and controversial."
"There was a time when I thought there is no way she can get elected President," Cook said. "Now I don’t say that any more."
On the Republican side, Cook said every major candidate, including former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Sen. John McCain, and Romney all have problems to contend with that by themselves should be enough to knock them out of the race. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who just announced, has jumped in too late, Cook said, and must work hard and fast to catch up.
Why Romney? Because, according to Cook, he is the smartest and has the best organization and staff to overcome criticisms that he has "flip-flopped" on issues.
Then what?
Cook predicted a very close election, noting that Clinton in current polls holds a two to three point lead over Romney. "That’s a real low ceiling," he said. "That’s playable."
For Congress? Cook predicted that Democrats will maintain control of both the House and Senate.
All of this, of course, depends upon "unforeseen" developments.
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